Copper Prices' Sudden Sharp Rise Disrupted Downstream Pre-Holiday Stockpiling, Spot Premiums Retreat After Rapid Rise [SMM Southern China Spot Copper Cathode Weekly Review]

SMM September 18, 2025:

Guangdong Region: WoW, spot premiums in the region retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, due to continuously declining inventory and pre-holiday stockpiling, spot premiums kept rising. However, as copper prices surged significantly, demand weakened rapidly, forcing suppliers to reduce prices to facilitate shipments. As of Thursday, premiums for high-quality copper were quoted at 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW; premiums for standard-quality copper were quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; discounts for SX-EW copper were quoted at 50 yuan/mt, flat WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 60 yuan/mt (higher in Guangdong), which was relatively small, leaving no room for inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses as of Thursday was 15,500 mt, down 5,700 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 7,400 mt, down 2,100 mt WoW. Specifically: warehouse arrivals this week were 8,500 mt/week, down 3,900 mt/week WoW, significantly below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Mid-week, shipments from smelters were suspended due to a typhoon, causing arrivals to drop noticeably. Withdrawals from warehouses were 14,600 mt/week, up 2,000 mt/week WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Downstream stockpiling enthusiasm was moderate early in the week but declined as copper prices rose sharply, leading to a slowdown in the destocking speed.

Looking ahead to next week, arrivals of imported copper are expected to be limited, while domestic arrivals are anticipated to increase slightly, leading to a projected overall increase in supply. Regarding downstream consumption: many downstream users are scheduled to have holidays lasting 4-6 days during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period, which is longer than in previous years. Therefore, we believe next week will see increased supply and weak consumption. Weekly inventory is expected to increase again, and spot premiums are likely to remain at low levels.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this information to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)